Hope everyone would agree that there is a global economic recession this year which is affecting India as well. If we look at the history it can be seen that such recession or sometimes depression happens at some irregular intervals.
And every time we have come out of it in around a year and then there would be a key development area helping largely in this recovery.
Some perception - Early 1990's recession was overcome by dot-com bubble. 2001 recession (which was caused due to dot-com bubble burst) was overcome by real estate, outsourcing.
I guess India has largely benefited by outsourcing (IT & BPO) before the current recession. So, what would be the case after coming out of this recession? Is India going to continue getting benefit of outsourcing? OR going to get anything new? OR anything that was there before but in a different angle??
Is it going to be IT? biotech? anything new?
I discussed this topic with various groups and below is the summary -
Recession/ Depression is like gang wars in 'THE GODFATHER' - "These things have to happen once every ten years or so. It gets rid of the bad blood. The sanitation department will be sweeping a lot of dead bodies this winter."
IT - Most of the IT people feel that IT would be saturated soon, whereas some non-IT people (and me) feel that IT would continue to dominate for more years.
Asia's domestic market - Infrastructure development in our own and neighboring countries would provide a significant market. e-Governance is one of the major area for Asian countries.
USA being the center of excellence and growth for many countries may get changed. Watch out for countries like Russia and China. Note that Russia had a tremendous growth in the past decade. Also Africa is now 'onsite' place for Infrastructure companies. With our new friends, we may get some piece of action in these places.
Other development options for India could be on Fishing, natural renewable energy generation, biotech, modernization of agriculture, genetic engineering ...
If you have other thoughts let us know through comments for this blog.
Camping 2014
10 years ago
You have summarized all we have ever discussed da. And something new which we had not discussed also. So, nothing new I can say. But suddenly a thought...
ReplyDeleteWhat about a formula for alternate fuel? A new fuel that could be produced naturally (not like the mythic *Mooligai Petrol*). If something like that comes, tremendous things could happen.
What about an invention of cheap Super Conductors?
Though these things are not going to override the recession by bringing business, they could potentially, ease the tension and cure the recession.
@amudhan: Nice ideas da. But these are like getting a crystal ball with all power:) Not sure how far it is possible.
ReplyDeleteNo more bubbles please! They have caused enough havoc especially in the unregulated capitalism.
ReplyDeleteIT Saturation: IT saturation need not happen as you rightly guess, but surely India would have to take a hit given the relentless pursuit of our younger generation's demand of more and more and more pay. But a rise (??) of internal market can give some hope against this.
Alternative fuel is definitely one area, but the reluctance of big powers to invest in such research puts a big question mark over the timelines (the scandinavian countries are the ones trying out, not much of others). May be someone in US would think of this being an option better than mooting construction projects.
Agricultural modernization in India is not just about 'technology', but also about social changes. I hardly see that happening anytime soon. The involvement of big corporates in agriculture can only bring about long term problems and not technological upgrades. Social change is the first need here.
Fishing? you must be joking ! If the fishing industry booms, then surely it will be followed by an environmental catastrophe and a death to itself.
Defence, weapons: Given the situation of the world, there would be huge money spent on defence by major countries fearing about the so called 'terrorists'. Of course globalization and communalism in India and elsewhere would indirectly pave way for money being channelized to terrorism and weapons industry would grow even in the underground.
how about health sector ?
@Krish: Yes, the defense and the health sector are missed out!! both of these would be important growth area.
ReplyDeleteI do agree that "Social change" may be required for many of the growth areas.
Instead of going for alternate fuel, work on solar energy and atomic energy (naturally abundant resources) to make them cheaper and user friendly and super conductors (conservation of energy during transmission) can be carried out
ReplyDeleteSo long as people are greedy, (and they will continue to be greedy), bubble formation can not be avoided
ReplyDeleteHi vijay. it was very cold and i even started running nose. but the experience was so good. we didn't take our camera, so we don't have much photos. anyhow, thanks for reading my travelogue. I planned to travel a lot in 2009, and hope u can find more updates. FYI, i subscribed to your feeds long time ago.. :)
ReplyDelete