thinking machines

Do machines think? I was thinking about this when I was riding the bike. When you start a bike, you start it with first gear. Once it starts moving slowly you press the clutch, change to second gear and then release the clutch. You do this sequence of action many many times, that is whenever you start a bike. So the bike engine must be very much used to this.

Whenever you start the bike from rest in first gear and press the clutch, the bike engine would be anticipating that when the clutch is released, it will be in second gear. I tried the an experiment and below is my observation. you can also check this out -

Start the bike in first gear and press the clutch. Now instead of moving to second gear, release the clutch in first gear itself. The engine which was expecting second gear would jerk as it is first gear again. This jerk would not be seen if you continue in first gear itself without pressing the clutch.

So I thought even machines think few thinks, atleast based on their experience.

[story] tenten

[my tenth story in this blog site.]

Long long ago, so long ago, oneday at 11pm I was chatting in gtalk with my Chinese friend Jing Wu. Till that day the SUN rises at 11 am and sets at 11pm. It was 11-11 day world. While chatting, Jing Wu told me a secret about a great human power which she learnt from her fore fathers. It was interesting to hear but very hard to believe that day. It was about a technique where one can enter into other person's dream and do real time activities. Interesting is it? I will tell you more. "tenten" is the name given by her for this technique.

Though I didnot believe at that point of time, I asked her to teach me the tenten technique. She asked me to sleep. OK, I logged out and slept near the computer itself. In few minutes I woke up hearing the calling bell sound. As I went and opened the door, there was a typical chinese girl standing there. I pointed my fore finger at her and questioned "Jing Wu?". "Yes Vijay, how are you?", she asked.

After talking to her I thought that she is there in my dream. But even after realising that it is a dream, I am not out of the dream!! She explained me that it is not she in my dream, but me in her dream. She can make people do whatever she wants in this dream. Its like she is the director of that dream in real time world. She would be able to direct the entire universe. ie., This dream is like a parallel universe and She is like a GOD for it. Also she told that this dream will end only when she decides to end it:)

Woops!! Head is rotating for me now. What is a dream? Not thinking too much I asked her to explain. In her sweet voice she started. Chinese english was bit difficult to follow yet I keenly observed her. Every word she spoke was true and very basic that helps realization of human power to the fullest extend. I acknowledged everything. I remembered the tenten that she told me during our chat and asked her about it. She explained me how to execute the tenten technique. No crystal ball or no magic stick, but only mind processing. It was amazing. (I will tell you the procedure for this tenten technique in a seperate blog).

Jing Wu then told me bye and went away. I locked the door and came back to sleep. I think Jing Wu has finished her dream by this time. It was 5 am when I woke up again, this time really (but what is real ? is a question). I remembered most of the things told by Jing Wu in her dream. Having known this great technique what do you think I would have done? If I teach you this technique what will you do?

Now, early in the morning, I wanted to try the tenten technique. I started the mind process as explained by Jing Wu. WoW!! I got into the dream. Rather I brought everything in the universe into my dream. The universe acted as per my wish, as per my direction. Now everyone around me are sleeping. I can do anything I want. OK, let me get the sun early so that people get up. I wished the SUN to rise at 6 am instead of the usual 11 am. Yes, the SUN did come up. It was a beautiful sight to see the sun at 6 am. hahaha.. I am the GOD for this dream universe now.

Just as I was thinking about Jing Wu's tenten technique I remembered that I had forgot something important before coming into the dream. It striked to me that I can go out of the dream and bring it the next time I come to the dream. But, What I forgot is the process for going out of the dream, Oops, now I cannot go out of the dream. Oooh.. What will I do now? I am trying to remember the process for getting out of the dream.

Once I complete my dream, we all will go to the actual 11-11 day world.

what next for India?

Hope everyone would agree that there is a global economic recession this year which is affecting India as well. If we look at the history it can be seen that such recession or sometimes depression happens at some irregular intervals.
And every time we have come out of it in around a year and then there would be a key development area helping largely in this recovery.

Some perception - Early 1990's recession was overcome by dot-com bubble. 2001 recession (which was caused due to dot-com bubble burst) was overcome by real estate, outsourcing.

I guess India has largely benefited by outsourcing (IT & BPO) before the current recession. So, what would be the case after coming out of this recession? Is India going to continue getting benefit of outsourcing? OR going to get anything new? OR anything that was there before but in a different angle??
Is it going to be IT? biotech? anything new?


I discussed this topic with various groups and below is the summary -

Recession/ Depression is like gang wars in 'THE GODFATHER' - "These things have to happen once every ten years or so. It gets rid of the bad blood. The sanitation department will be sweeping a lot of dead bodies this winter."

IT - Most of the IT people feel that IT would be saturated soon, whereas some non-IT people (and me) feel that IT would continue to dominate for more years.

Asia's domestic market - Infrastructure development in our own and neighboring countries would provide a significant market. e-Governance is one of the major area for Asian countries.

USA being the center of excellence and growth for many countries may get changed. Watch out for countries like Russia and China. Note that Russia had a tremendous growth in the past decade. Also Africa is now 'onsite' place for Infrastructure companies. With our new friends, we may get some piece of action in these places.

Other development options for India could be on Fishing, natural renewable energy generation, biotech, modernization of agriculture, genetic engineering ...


If you have other thoughts let us know through comments for this blog.

2008

The Year 2008 has passed by and I am anticipating the new year 2009. 2008 was a wonderful year with no major changes in my life. While thinking of 2008, I get the following points in my mind -


I started blogging in January 2008. I found this to be an interesting timepass activity. Hope I will continue this in 2009 also.

One other good thing I did in 2008 was my morning exercise. I did it regularly for almost 8-9 months of the year. It was simple yet regular.

I had spent two months in South Korea, three days in Thailand and rest of the 2008 in India. It was a good experience of meeting people from various countries.

In Bangalore, me and my friends shifted our home from BTM to a flat in GMPalaya in September. Still commuting to office using the office bus only.

I continued working as software engineer at my office and enjoyed my work. Worked on two patent ideas during 2008, soon will become a patent holder:)

This year I tried many different restaurants for food with a variety of cuisines, still Thai is my favorite.

I did not see any great Tamil movie during 2008, though many were good. Also I have started seeing some of the other language movies and liked them (Korean - My Sassy Girl, Unstoppable Marriage, Kannada - Matta, Amrutha Varshini, Hindi - A Wednesday).

Terrorist attack in Mumbai hotels shook the entire world.

My view on life and the philosophy that I believe did not change over this year. I am happy about this :)

2008 had a major Economic recession across the globe. I think this is the first major one after I got some understanding on the world economic conditions.

My Share trading also went into losses owing to the market conditions. But I had fun and lot of learnings about share trading over this year. Hopefully 2009 would be one of the best one for share trading.

This year India especially TN got a good amount of rainfall.


Wish you a happy new year 2009.

comment

Some people do something good or bad.
Some people comment on what some other people have done.
Some people comment on what other people comment.
Some people remain silent without doing anything.

Think off Which one of the above is good. But you don't stop commenting.

[story] 2 in 1

"There was a paddy field outside the village and very near to a dense forest. While working there, the villagers appointed John for looking out any wild animals and warning the people whenever some man eater comes so that they could join together and fight against it. It was a boring job for John.

One day John decided to play some trick. He suddenly started shouting 'Tiger.. Tiger.. Help..' All the villagers rushed with all the instruments to save John. As it was a fake call, all were disappointed but John was laughing in his mind.
The next day, getting bored he did that trick again. And the villagers were disappointed badly this time.

The third day, really the tiger came!! Oops.. John shouted for help. The villagers thought it as a fake call and continued with their work. John tried his best to fight with the tiger. Luckily with bad injuries he escaped his life. The villagers felt very sorry for him.

Next day also John went with the villagers for the same job. What do you think the villagers will do if John plays the same trick again?
Boring John shouted for help without any wild animals around. The villagers rushed for help. Seeing no animals around they asked John not to shout simply as it could lead to similar problems faced by John when the tiger really came.

Now, if John shouts next day also the villagers would again run for help, because they dont want to loose John for his kiddish behavior. This would repeat indefinitely even if the villagers get bored of running for help :)

As I was seeing all this happening in the village, I realized and told John that 'There are some things in the world which you cannot ignore even though it did not help you in anyways for so many times'." To explain further, I told him a story. Let me tell you that story...


"I was driving the new 'Chevrolet malibu' at 110 mph (this 'mph' gives a clue that I am driving in US). Looked like I was in rush for something, but not.

My friend was also there with me in the car and we were hearing nice Indian songs as we were enjoying the ride. I know you will know her name. This relaxing ride is the usual thing that we do everyday evening.

Each time I need to turn the car to the next lane of the road, I had to move myself little front and check for any vehicles through the rear view mirror. I need to move to avoid any blind spots. I have observed some times that a vehicle next to me does not appear in the rear view mirror unless I move a little. So, every time I was moving to confirm that no vehicle comes in the next lane before turning the car to that lane. I told my friend that this is a very boring job for me and I am going to miss it sometime.

But I know that I cannot afford to hit another vehicle by not watching the rear view mirror properly. She told me that 'There are some things in the world which you cannot ignore even though it did not help you in anyways for so many times'." To explain further, she told me the story of villagers and John which is above.

vaaranam aayiram

"Long time back, when MGR appears on the screen and sings 'Rajavin paarvai raani en pakkam...' the theatre will shake because of the crowd's sound and lot of colour papers will fly throughout the movie hall. Nowadays there is not that much of craze for movies among the people" - These were the words of my +2 english teacher when he started the class on one fine monday morning. He was actually referring to a Rajinikanth's movie that he saw during weekend. I was also on the same show, but my thought was exactly opposite to my english teacher. I could not hear any dialouges and I was thinking how crazy people could be to shout like that.

Today I saw a new movie in theatre - "vaanaram aayiram" - first day, second show. No sound from the audience except for people talking their own personal things. Actually we were playing solitaire game in the mobile while in theatre. I think the quality of movies as well as the interest in people for movies have come down. But only the price to be given for a show has increased!!


"vaanaram aayiram" is a beautiful movie. The hero of the movie has done a wonderful job with lot of different getups throughout the movie - Playing 2 roles in the movie he has done more than ten getups. Almost three hour for a movie is difficult to be unboring especially with less number of artists. This movie revolves around a father and his son.

The movie opens with the father suffering from throat cancer. With a very less BGM, his excellant performance continues of a while. This makes us to expect that we will have to wait and watch to dive into fast moving tracks soon. Then, the father dies and the sadness is there in the background throughout the movie. Thus failing to fulfill the expectations. Overall the movie doesnt seem to move faster making us to wait for the interval and the end.

The 'story' doesnt play a major role in the movie. With hero's role as a good guitarist, the music director has scored a good piece of music in songs and in BGM. None of the heroine was impressive in the movie. The last fifteen mins of the movie was like watching someone playing counter strike. The father's flashback took us to the movies of 80's. But not very impressive there too. Looks like the director has tried to give some message in the movie.

I dont remember most parts of the movie (for a person who is used of watching a movie for a week, one movie in 3 hr is too much). And this is my first written movie review. So dont know what to say!!

[story] strong beaks

Once upon a time there lived a bird called CK in the city of madurai. She was so intelligent that she could complete all her day to day activities in less than an hour. So she had a free time of almost 552 hrs per day. I know you would ask how it will be 552. Considering that she can do her 24 hrs job in 1 hr, she will have 552 normal bird hrs free per day. All these calculations are made relative to today's time.

She decided that she should do something and avoid wasting time. She always wished to visit different parts of the world. So, packing the required food she started flying across the world. In almost two normal bird months she visited three countries in two different continent. She got to know about many birds from many places. And then she returned home. From her experience over this two months, she has gained a lot of knowledge.

Same once upon a time there lived another bird called LA. He was so lazy when compared to CK that he had only 422 hrs of free time per day. In last two months he did nothing other than eating, sleeping and being idle. He use to be so jealous of CK as she is very active. But somehow he like his way of life and continued. Though CK doesn't like LA, she always believed at his capabilities to handle though situations.

When CK returned after her trip, both LA and CK went for dinner together. CK was very happy to explain all her experience. Then she started the worst things she learned during the trip. She told that the planet will be destroyed soon. LA came to the edge of his seat and listened. She explained various situations across the planet which could lead to destruction. As the discussion got hot, each of them picked a dinosaur with their beaks.

One such reason for destruction of world is that a mighty tailed star would rush through the entire universe in next six months. It would burn any body whose volume is greater than 10000 cubic kilo meter. This includes the planet itself. However if it is less than 1000 cubic kilo meter in volume, that star would not do anything. Someone has to save the lives of the planet. Who will do?

After a long discussion, LA came up with a spontaneous plan to save the planet. It looked pretty decent and there seemed to be no other option. The plan was carve out equal sized blocks from the planet which is less than 10000 cubic kilo meter and throw them into the universe. The speed and the direction of throwing should be more calculative that these blocks get together after the mighty tailed star finishes its job (after thousands of years).

CK and LA did not have any time for the planning and the design phase. They decided to do it themself, as it will be difficult to explain the situation and the plan to other birds. Also no one would belive, like today. CK and LA decided to start of from madurai itself. LA started off. He opened his beak wide. Having madurai as the center of his beak, he carved out a big block out of the planet. He then threw it into the universe. He turned and smiled at CK with pride. CK moved her beak left and right and turned quickly.

OK. Now CK continued the same job towards south of madurai and LA doing his job north. They carved out all the pieces from the planet and threw them into the space. As CK threw the last block, both of them were free floating on the universe without any gravitational pull. Both of them looked at each other and smiled. They had a big satisfaction of saving all the lives of the planet. They know that one day all the pieces would join together and the life would sustain in the planet.

They were very tired. They dint even have a dinosaur to eat. As they were thinking if they have done the right job, the mighty tailed star came and burnt them :(
5000 years later, the Earth got created.

skandagiri

Hi.. this post is about my second trip to skandagiri. Blog on my first trip is here


18th Oct, 2008 mid night (aka early morning) 02.30 hrs I got up as per the plan. This plan has been postponing for almost two years in our team. Kiran would be happy to see this happening atlast:) Nine people decided to start off early in the morning. Saji and SMS brought their cars and picked everyone.



We all met near Hebal flyover at 4am. Few ppl had some energy drink then and we rushed through the hydrabad highway. Suddenly SMS car got some coolant problem and we had to go slow for the rest of the journey. We took a left turn at chikballapur to reach the base of skandagiri aka kalavarahalli betta. There was enough parking space and we could see lot of vehicles already there. Most of them do night trekking and be at the top of the hill to see the sunrise and the floating clouds below them. Yes we could see lot of clouds below the top of the hill. We wish we were at the top at that time. Its 6.00am.

We started the walk and all our cameras started clicking. Gokul captured some interesting videos throughout the trip. The climate was excellent quiet different from my first trip:) This made us relax while walking and also induced lot of rest on the way. Narayanan asusual was the talk of the group, but this time he could take some revenge on Gokul. Veena and Senthil could not walk slow and they were ahead of us all the way, sometimes narayanan joining them.

Deepa (sorry sakshi) brought bf (breakfast) for all. Eating the aalu parota and snacks we walked slowly throughout the trek. SMS was searching for his water bottle throughout the trip though we provided him enough water. It was fun all the way with music playing in any one of our cell phones. Sakshi would start dancing whenever she sees the deep valley by the side. Sapna was the one who could pull sakshi and saji whenever they stopped for a music.



We all reached the hilltop by around 11am. Relaxing over there with noone else around was amazing. As the cellphones started some wonderful songs, we started dancing. It was fun & we ate good amount of snacks, feeding some to the doggy over there. Coming down was bit faster but still we maintained the relaxations all the way.

As we started back from chikballapur, we stopped by a highway dhaba to have our lunch. It was almost 3pm now. Though we were very hungry we could not eat much, thanks to the excellent food. After reaching hebbal flyover, it was again the bangalore traffic and heavy noise around. We dispersed in respective cars to reach back home.

photos are at http://picasaweb.google.com/vijayakumar.balasubramanian/Skandagiri1

sharing share

Stock market has become a major buzz especially in the IT industry in the recent past. Every other person in every other day has their own view of the Indian stock market and the TV channel hosts lot of talks by so called experts in stock market. Sometimes (almost all times) on seeing these would make me feel that nothing is worth. More about stock advices is at this blog. After following Indian stock market for almost 12 years, I am trying to put my thoughts here.


First, lets have an brief introduction on stock price -

There is nothing called "price" for a stock in the secondary share market. Its only the "last traded price" of a stock that would reflect the value of the stock. Hence the value of the stock is decided by buyers/ sellers of the stock. Whenever there is a demand for a stock, the buyers would be ready to pay more than its current value and the sellers would resist selling at the current value, thus the trading would happen at a higher rate and thereby increaseing the stock value. Reverse of this statement is also true.

Next let us see about the stock market -

The stock market doesnot restrict to the buyer, seller, exchange and the stock. Its a very big system with lot of elements in it. Anything that could impact either lightly OR heavily the value of the stock either immediately OR in the near future OR in the far future can be considered as an element of the system. The impact could be either positive OR negative. Also, Elements could affect the value directly OR combination of certain elements could do so. The permutations and combination of all but not restricted to the above mentioned OR factors would increase the complexity of the system. Thus the system in which the stock trading happens is very big and highly dynamic. We can consider each and every activity happening in the world as an element of this system, even a butterfly flapping its wing could be one. (Then, Imagine how big the system could be!).

Now lets move to the main topic -

The tricky question to win stock market is "What is the demand for a particular stock and what could be its demand in future". If every element remains constant in the system, the demand doesnot change. But as the system is highly dynamic, the demand keeps changing. The demand changes only due to the effect of elements in the market and not anything else. So, to determine the future demand of the stock we need to carve out the most important elements of the system and follow its dynamics. Remember that rumor could also be an element of the stock market, and so is the news channel's junk talks :)

From the above, I hope you can believe that the value of a stock is deterministic, meaning that their future dynamics are fully defined by their initial conditions with no random elements involved. Eventhough it is deterministic it is hardly predictable because of the size of the system and its dynamism. One more element of the system is the effect of our effort to evaluate the system which would become recursive and thus becomes unpredictable.

Thus my only suggestion is to dynamically take few important elements of the system related to few stocks and believe in them to invest on them.

Note: The concepts that we have discussed above can be applied for our life aswell. Everything that happens in our life is deterministic (fate), but can hardly be predicted. Some people like true astrologers try to predict it by considering many elements that can greatly affect the system.